By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief
The UFC returns to pay-per-view after a month off on Saturday with UFC 119 from the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. Headlined by a heavyweight bout between Frank Mir and Mirko Cro Cop, it may not seem like much of a card to many observers, but this event promises to provide a ton of action, and the matchups suggest some very exciting fights are in order. Let's get to the fights!
Frank Mir vs. Mirko Cro Cop (Heavyweight)
As Chris Park wrote earlier this week, Frank Mir and Mirko Cro Cop are both at a crossroads in the heavyweight division. Cro Cop is trying to climb his way back up to contention one final time, while Mir is hoping he can keep himself from falling drastically down the ladder.
Mir has suffered two really brutal beatings over his last three fights, but hes sprinkled in two of his greatest career performances against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cheick Kongo in the middle of those. His chin is surely going to be a point of emphasis for his opponents going forward, and if he decides to stand with Cro Cop for too long in this fight he could put himself in some real danger.
Cro Cop's story heading into this fight does not lead to much confidence. Taking the fight on five week's notice, Cro Cop has been talking in interviews as if he were a beaten man before he ever entered the city of Indianapolis. Adding the eye injury suffered in training and Cro Cop could be in for a very rough fight.
It really comes down to which Frank Mir shows up to fight on Saturday. If it's the gameplanning and intelligent side of Mir, he'll get Mirko to the ground at some point in the fight and work his superior game there. If it's the egotistical Mir who believes he can stand with anyone in the heavyweight division, he leaves him self open for the upset. I tend to lean towards the smarter Mir showing up in this one, and coupled with Cro Cop's seeming mental weakness heading into the fight it should be Mir's fight to lose.
PREDICTION: Mir via submission in the second round
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader (Light Heavyweight)
"Lil Nog" made his presence felt in the UFC's deep light heavyweight division when he knocked out Luiz Cane in his Octagon debut. However, his aura was brought back down to earth in May when Jason Brilz, a late replacement when Forrest Griffin was forced out of UFC 114, gave Nogueira all he could handle. He escaped with a decision, but many felt Brilz deserved the nod.
Ryan Bader won The Ultimate Fighter season eight by showing he was more than just a wrestler. His heavy hands have benefited him greatly in his short MMA career, and he has serious power and the ability to knock many fighters out. A fast rising prospect, Bader surprisingly comes into this fight as the favorite.
Nogueira may have looked human against Brilz, but he also appeared to take that fight very lightly. The same will not happen in this fight. His twin brother Minotauro Nogueira was Bader's coach on TUF, and Nogueira understands what he's got in front of him in this fight.
Bader is a very good fighter in his own right, but this is a major step up from the Keith Jardine fight earlier this year, and it may be just a bit too much for him to overcome at this point in his career. I like Nogueira to look much better than he did in May to win a tough fight.
PREDICTION: Nogueira via unanimous decision
Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle (Welterweight)
A rematch of the Ultimate Fighter season four finals, Serra an Lytle have each taken very different paths since their first meeting back in 2006.
Serra made the most of his TUF 4 opportunity and shocked the MMA world when he knocked out Georges St. Pierre to win the UFC Welterweight Championship. But since that win, he's only fought three more times, losing in the rematch to St. Pierre, losing to TUF 6 coaching rival Matt Hughes and knocking out Frank Trigg.
Lytle, meanwhile, has kept himself extremely busy. He's posted a 7-3 record in ten fights since losing to Serra, nine of them in the UFC. He's earned "Fight Night" bonus checks in seven of those nine fights. Currently riding a three fight win streak, Lytle's got all the momentum on his side, especially with this fight in his backyard.
Lytle is favored in this fight, and rightfully so. Serra simply hasn't been very active, and though his two recent losses were to St. Pierre and Hughes, the win over Trigg doesn't mean much compared to the level of competition Lytle has been consistently facing. I like Lytle to win this fight, but it won't be easy. It should be an entertaining scrap, however, with both fighters very capable of a firefight on their feet and a clinic on the ground.
PREDICTION: Lytle via unanimous decision
Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham (Lightweight)
The way some have been approaching this fight, you'd think Sherk has zero chance. Coming off an eighteen month layoff and losing two of his last three fights certainly doesn't help his case, but when those two losses came at the hands of the current and former Champions of the division, there's nothing to be ashamed of.
Dunham heads into the fight with a lot of momentum and an undefeated record, but this is a major step up for him and he's not faced a fighter of Sherk's caliber to this point. He's been highly impressive in four fights in the UFC, most notably in submitting Efrain Escudero and out grappling Tyson Griffin in impressive fashion.
Sherk may be coming off a lengthy injury layoff, but he's been intensely training for this fight for the past few months, and comes into the fight feeling wholly prepared for anything presented by Dunham. What needs to be remembered is Sherk didn't get beaten up by Frankie Edgar, he simply had a bad gameplan against a much quicker fighter able to outbox him. This is going to be a very interesting fight, but I like the "upset" play in Sherk here, and think he's being far undersold heading into Indianapolis.
PREDICTION: Sherk via unanimous decision
Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens (Lightweight)
Almost assuredly set as a complete slugfest for the pay-per-view opener, this fight is an extremely exciting matchup. Both Guillard and Stephens are known for their striking games, while also possessing similar issues when faced with good ground fighters. Stephens has acclimated himself to that part of the game much more than Guillard, but it hasn't been either fighter's strong suit.
Guillard, when fighting smart and not killing himself with mistakes, can be one of the top lightweight fighters in the sport. The talent and the skill has been there from the outset, and since moving to work with Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico, Guillard has been a different fighter. He's 5-1 over his last six fights, the sole loss being a mental mistake when he drove in on Nate Diaz and got caught in a guillotine choke.
As for Stephens, his up and down Octagon performances have seen him go 2-2 in his last four fights since the beginning of 2009. He's coming off a good performance in a split decision against Sam Stout, and he'll provide a huge test for Guillard.
This should be an extremely exciting fight. For as much as I like Stephens' skills, however, I believe Guillard to simply be the better fighter overall, and I think he'll pick up his third straight win and do it in impressive fashion.
PREDICTION: Guillard via KO in the second round
====SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY CARD====
C.B. Dollaway vs. Joe Doerksen (Middleweight)
Joe Doerksen hasn't had much success inside the UFC, but he made the best of yet another opportunity with the organization in May when he choked out "Filthy" Tom Lawlor in the second round. He came from behind in that bout, but he got the submission victory in the fight to get the hometown crowd revved up.
Dollaway, meanwhile, has gone 4-1 since losing to Amir Sadollah in the Ultimate Fighter's seventh season finale event. The sole loss came when Lawlor choked him unconscious with a vicious guillotine choke one minute into their bout at UFC 100, but he's since bounced back with consecutive decision victories over Jay Silva and Goran Reljic.
Dollaway should win this fight, but Doerksen cannot be counted out. He's the underdog for a number of reasons, but that in no way means he can't win the fight. He most certainly can, but Dollaway should get the job done and pick up the win in this fight on Spike.
PREDICTION: Dollaway via TKO in the second round
Matt Mitrione vs. Joey Beltran (Heavyweight)
This should be an entertaining heavyweight bout between "The Mexicutioner" and "Meathead." The former NFL player-turned-mixed-martial-artist in Mitrione has looked very impressive in his first two official UFC fights, though there are still plenty of questions that still need to be answered.
Beltran hasn't looked great in either of his UFC appearances, winning a decision over Tim Hague and defeating Rolles Gracie in one of the real snoozers of 22.
Mitrione, meanwhile, has looked better each of the times he's gone out to the cage. First knocking out Marcus "Big Baby" Johnson, and then finishing off Kimbo Slice at UFC 113 in May, Mitrione's got some very exciting skills and this should be a competitive and entertaining heavyweight bout to kick of the live night of fights.
PREDICTION: Mitrione via TKO in the second round
====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS====
? Pat "Awesomely Awesome" Audinwood over Thiago Tavares via unanimous decision
? Steve Lopez over Waylon Lowe via submission in the second round
? TJ Grant over Julio Paulino via unanimous decision
? Sean McCorkle over Mark Hunt via submission in the second round
====BETTING CONTEST PICKS====
$100 on McCorkle
$100 on Audinwood
$200 on Sherk
$200 on Lytle
$400 on Nogueira
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