By: Shawn Ennis, MMATorch Columnist This will be the first of two parts breaking down the UFC's heavyweight division. This week will focus on the top of the division, while next week looks at the rest of the heavyweights and what those outside the UFC have to offer. The heavyweight division has never had what one would call a long-term dominant champion. The title has never been defended more than twice, and four guys have done that (Randy Couture, Andre Arlovski, Tim Sylvia and Brock Lesnar). Lesnar has the longest title reign in UFC history at 708 days, which edges out Randy Couture's 623 days. And both of those reigns were made longer by the crowning of an interim champion in the midst of them. Will Cain Velasquez be the dominant champion that the heavyweight division has lacked? Well, Joe Rogan said the Cain Velasquez era has arrived, but the last one to be heralded with his own "era" was Lyoto Machida, who defended the light heavyweight title exactly once, and that wasn't exactly a clear-cut decision. So time will tell on this one.
THE CHAMP Cain Velasquez (9-0): As we saw on Saturday night, Velasquez won the heavyweight crown in one of the more dominant title changes we've ever seen. He used pinpoint striking and good defensive wrestling to nullify Lesnar's questionable bulrush gameplan and pummel him until Herb Dean was forced to call a halt to the violence. Next up for the newly crowned champ will be Junior dos Santos, who is well-deserving of a title shot, having won six straight fights. Velasquez himself has won seven straight, so whoever is champion after this fight will certainly have an impressive UFC resume.
THE CONTENDER Junior Dos Santos (12-1): The first non-stoppage victory in the career of Junior Dos Santos came at a good time. In his decision win over Roy Nelson, Dos Santos learned that he couldn't just walk into the Octagon and knock out every opponent in the first round. Dos Santos did not mix up the types of strikes he used, choosing to throw punches almost exclusively throughout all three rounds and abandoning all other strategy. This made it pretty obvious that Dos Santos planned on an early knockout and didn't have a plan for what to do if that didn't happen. He's going to need some contingency plans against Cain Velasquez. The champion can take a hard shot as evidenced by his fight with Chieck Kongo, and he can also employ high-level MMA wrestling when needed. This should be a heck of a fight between two guys that match up really well together on paper. (For the record, I think Velasquez has more ways to win, and I think he takes it).
A STEP OR TWO AWAY Shane Carwin (12-1): Admittedly, things haven't gone well for Carwin in the recent past. After being tied to a steroid distribution ring (luckily for him not in a timeline fitting his UFC tenure) late in the summer, he pulled out of his January 1 fight with Roy Nelson this month due to a back injury. It certainly hadn't been made official, but it wouldn't be surprising if that was originally going to be a title eliminator. Yes, his last fight was a loss to then-champion Brock Lesnar, but the first round of that fight ensured that the erstwhile engineer didn't tumble far in the heavyweight championship picture. It looks like Carwin will be out for about half of next year if not longer, and one would imagine that he'll be right back in the mix when he's healthy again. Should be interesting to see how he'll fit back into a division that could certainly change quite a lot between now and then.
Brendan Schaub (7-1): It may seem premature, but consider: Schaub called out Frank Mir after his impressive win over Gabriel Gonzaga on Saturday. Even if he doesn't get Mir, he'll likely get a highly-regarded opponent in his next bout (perhaps Big Nog or Cheick Kongo - probably a bit soon for a rematch with Roy Nelson), and if he wins that, would anyone be shocked if he was thrown into a title eliminator? Remember, the heavyweight division is better now at the top than it's been in a long time. But that doesn't mean it's extremely deep. Schaub is not far off of a title shot.
Roy Nelson (15-5): An unlikely entrant into this position since he's 2-3 in his last five fights, but Nelson is a TUF winner, and it stands to reason that he'll get a high-profile replacement for original opponent Shane Carwin in January. He finds himself in a similar situation to Schaub in that he's got to win his next fight in order to qualify for this list, but if he does he can't be far off from a shot. This list could actually get a couple of names longer with Frank Mir, Big Nog and Cheick Kongo, as I think they'll be opponents for either Schaub, Nelson and Brock Lesnar in some order. The reason I'm leaving them off is that I think they'll all be beaten in those fights. In short, I think your next title contender after Dos Santos will be Schaub, Nelson or Lesnar. The catch is that Lesnar only probably has to win one fight impressively to get a rematch, while Schaub or Nelson will probably have to win twice.
UP AND COMERS Sean McCorkle (10-0): It's hard to tell much about the Indiana-based fighter from his one-minute submission win over Mark Hunt. Hunt is hardly known as a great grappler, and the loss was his sixth straight first round defeat. Still, Hunt had been on the big stage before and looked to be in decent shape. The bottom line is that we should find out if McCorkle is for real when he takes on the towering Stefan Struve at UFC 124 in December.
Jon Madsen (7-0): What a difference a fight makes. After he put on displays that could cure insomnia, Jon Madsen came out against Gilbert Yvel at UFC 121 like he had something to prove?and prove it he did. While an in-his-prime Yvel likely would have inflicted serious harm on Madsen, the TUF veteran showed that he's not averse to actually attacking an opponent rather than dominating in a positional fashion for 15 minutes. I'd like to see a fight between Madsen and Christian Morecraft or Matt Mitrione. Speaking of Mitrione?
Matt Mitrione (3-0): Is he green? Absolutely. But he packs some power in his punches and thus far he's been able to find a way to hit people. Joey Beltran certainly isn't a world-beater, but he's also dangerous if you get sloppy. Mitrione was able to win a decision at UFC 119 against Beltran despite taking some big shots himself en route. He may or may not pan out, and he's a bit old to only have three fights under his belt, but it takes a very good athlete to play in the NFL, so I wouldn't count Mitrione out of the picture just yet.
ON THE REBOUND Brock Lesnar (5-2): Despite MMA fans' propensity to write a guy off after a high-profile loss (especially one as devastating as Lesnar's), the now-former heavyweight champ isn't done just yet. Some will point to his tendency to cut and run when he loses interest as an indicator that Lesnar isn't long for the UFC. I would have to disagree with that sentiment, as I think Lesnar still has a few more years in him. A rubber match with Frank Mir seems the most logical course of action for Lesnar, though a showdown with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira could also be a possibility. There are some who would refer to Lesnar's loss on Saturday as an indicator that he'll never have the tools necessary to beat Cain Velasquez. The thing to keep in mind here, though, is that Lesnar has improved with every fight, and now that he has gotten a taste of Velasquez, he'll know what he needs to work on and he'll do it. Whether he'll be successful in a rematch remains to be seen, but to count out a guy the caliber of Brock Lesnar would be hasty and short-sighted.
I'll be back next week with a rundown of the rest of the division. Until then, enjoy the fights.
Definitions/Parameters: The Champ: Self-explanatory
The Contenders: Fighters who could fight for the title immediately and be taken as legitimate contenders. Fighters coming off of a loss will not typically be in this category.
A Step or Two Away: Fighters who could be in contention for a title with another victory or two over legitimate competition.
Up and Comers: Fighters who have no more than three fights in the UFC, who have shown promise. They're not always undefeated, but they have potential.
On the Rebound: Coming off of a high-profile loss or a loss in a fight that they should have won, and it will take a while to get the momentum back. Typically a champion who just lost his belt, as there's really nowhere else to put them.
The Pool: Other fighters of note within the division, who could work their way into the top three categories by going on a run and/or proving themselves/proving themselves again in the Octagon. Also those outside the UFC who could make an impact.
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/Ennistake/article_7354.shtml
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