By: Jamie Penick, MMATorch Editor-in-Chief The UFC returns to Detroit on Saturday night for the first time since UFC 9, and they're bringing an excellent card to The Palace at Auburn Hills. The two co-main events feature four former champions in Quinton Jackson, Lyoto Machida, B.J. Penn and Matt Hughes, and the rest of the card is filled with a number of up and coming fighters and prospects, as well as some UFC mainstays. Let's get to the fights!
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida (Light Heavyweight) There are a lot of fans and writers completely writing Rampage off heading into this showdown, and it's not necessarily an unreasonable take. Jackson has made no reservations about the fact that he fights for the money and not because he loves fighting. And although he's a former Light Heavyweight Champion and is more than capable of competing with anyone in the division, a lot of his performances in the UFC have left a lot to be desired.
Machida, meanwhile, has plenty of questions to be answered about how he'll respond to not only the first loss of his career, but being knocked out for the first time. After destroying Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans early in 2009, Machida was finally made to look human in his two fights against Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.
Rampage still has elite skills. Those skills have never gone away, but far too often in recent memory he's just not performed up to his capabilities. The self imposed layoff Rampage took in 2009 to film The A Team had a clearly negative effect on him when he finally fought Rashad Evans in May, but even in his fight with Keith Jardine last March he didn't perform all that well. He may have won that fight, but in both of those bouts he seemed lethargic and not at all on his game.
This fight will be determined by which version of each fighter shows up. If Machida is hesitant and tentative to engage after getting knocked out, it could allow Rampage a little more room to press the pace himself and get in to land some punches. Machida's game is predicated on his counter-striking, but Rampage's defense in the striking department is superb, and Machida's going to have tough time scoring with his strikes.
I'm not willing to write off Rampage completely. He's entirely capable of staying in this fight with Machida, and if he lands flush he can put Machida in bad spots. He'll have some success in this fight, but ultimately I don't trust him to put together a complete fight because we just haven't seen him do it in a long time.
PREDICTION: Machida via unanimous decision
B.J. Penn vs. Matt Hughes (Welterweight) I love this fight. These two have met twice before, and split those fights. The first difference in this third meeting is that a title will not be on the line. Penn pulled off the massive upset in the first fight by submitting Hughes in the first round at UFC 46, and nearly did the same in the second round at UFC 63. But while trying to take Hughes' back in that second round, Penn suffered a broken rib and had nothing left in the third round, which allowed Hughes to take over.
Now, both fighters are moving in different directions and both need a win in this fight to keep themselves in the conversation as title challengers.
I'm of the belief that Frankie Edgar simply has B.J. Penn's number. After manhandling Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez in 2009, Penn simply found himself unable to fight to that same level against Edgar. "The Answer" has just that for Penn's game, and his unique blend of speed, striking ability and timing on his takedown attempts were the key to outpointing him in their two meetings in 2010 (although I still contend Penn should have been given the nod at UFC 112).
With that said, Hughes won't be able to duplicate what Frankie Edgar did to Penn. His win over Ricardo Almeida was really impressive, but I think Penn still has more in the tank. And what Penn was able to do against Hughes twice before cannot be forgotten. With this being a three round fight, I don't have any concerns with Penn's conditioning, and he looks to be in great shape. He's also coming in with a lot of motivation in this fight, and I think we're going to see a very good version of "The Prodigy" in Detroit.
PREDICTION: Penn via submission in the second round
Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcao (Middleweight) Gerald Harris is getting the main card treatment for the first time after a 3-0 start to his UFC career. He's won ten straight fights overall, and he's finished the last seven. The last five have all come by way of knockout or TKO, with his most recent win being the slam on Dave Branch at UFC 116 that got airtime on ESPN.
Falcao is making his UFC debut, and brings a long streak of finishing fights himself. At 25-3 overall in his career, the Chute Box product has finished 24 of those victories, and has stopped each of his past seven opponents in the first round.
This one is likely to bring fireworks, and the UFC is banking on that with this main card placement. I like Harris' level of competition better, but Falcao could definitely make a splash in his debut.
PREDICTION: Harris via TKO in the second round
Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch (Light Heavyweight) The line on this fight is heavily in "Mr. Wonderful's" favor, and rightfully so, but Boetsch is no pushover. Davis is a former NCAA D-1 wrestling champion, and he's been very impressive in victories over Brian Stann, Alexander Gustafsson and Rodney Wallace. But he continues to try to downplay the accolades being showered upon him considering he's still just seven fights into his career.
Boetsch made a successful return to the UFC at UFC 117 in August after winning three fights outside of the organization. His first stint in the UFC was a mixed bag, as he won two fights in devastating fashion, lost one the same way and then found himself cut after an uninspired performance against Jason Brilz.
The line is this lopsided for a reason. Boetsch was thoroughly outwrestled by Brilz at UFC 96, and Davis is a better wrestler than Brilz. Davis rolls to 8-0 in this one.
PREDICTION: Davis via submission in the first round
George Sotiropolous vs. Joe Lauzon (Lightweight) This excellent fight definitely has ramifications in the lightweight title picture, especially for the Aussie, as Sotiropoulos has won all six of his fights in the UFC, and has won seven fights in a row overall.
Lauzon rolled through Gabe Ruediger at UFC 118 in Boston, and looked to finally regain his form after a poor showing against Sam Stout in January. That fight saw him return from a lengthy injury layoff, and his conditioning was definitely not working for him in that fight.
Lauzon's got a very good ground game, but Sotiropoulos may have the best top game in the lightweight division. His ability to pass guard and dominate his opponents in top position has provided some of the more surprising and entertaining fights over the past few years. After being on the sidelines due to injury for over a year, Sotiropoulos made quick work of George Roop and Jason Dent before pulling off dominating decision victories over Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino.
Lauzon is absolutely an excellent fighter, but I honestly see Sotiropoulos as a future title challenger in the lightweight division, and he'll show why here.
PREDICTION: Sotiropoulos via submission in the second round
=====SPIKE TV PRELIMINARY BOUTS=====
Matt Brown vs. Brian Foster (Welterweight) Matt Brown is coming off of two straight submission losses, but those losses came against two very good fighters in Chris Lytle and Ricardo Almeida.
Foster blasted Forrest Petz in his last outing, rebounding from a submission loss to Lytle of his own. Add that to his shockingly dominant win over Brock Larson and Foster is a bad man.
But that same description applies to Brown, who owns some vicious wins over James Wilks and Pete Sell as well. This is a tough fight, and a near tossup, but despite the losses I think Brown rebounds in a must-win fight.
PREDICTION: Brown via TKO in the third round
Aaron Simpson vs. Mark Munoz (Middleweight) Neither Simpson nor Munoz looked particularly good in their last fights, with Simpson losing for the first time against Chris Leben and Munoz getting handled by Yushin Okami. Both fighters are former NCAA D-1 wrestlers and sport that as their main fighting background, but both have also developed decent striking games as well.
But, looking at the fights they've had, Munoz has had more impressive performances against a higher level of opponent, and it took Yushin Okami to make him look bad, while in Simpson's case it was Leben. Munoz is taking this one, and I think he'll look good doing it.
PREDICTION: Munoz via TKO in the second round
=====PRELIMINARY CARD QUICK PICKS=====
* Karo Parisyan over Dennis Hallman via unanimous decision
* Edson Barbosa over Mike Lullo via TKO in the first round
* T.J. O'Brien via submission in the first round
* Nik Lentz over Tyson Griffin via unanimous decision
=====BETTING CONTEST PICKS=====
$500 on Penn
$300 on Brown
$100 on O'Brien
$100 on Lentz
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/penickstake/article_7583.shtml
FIGHT GEAR
FIGHT SHORTS
FIGHT WEAR
FRANK MIR